Selection of components to be repaired, according to failure, redundancy and uncertainty to improve system reliability

This paper presents the evaluation of the present and future capacity of a redundant system to perform the productive tasks assigned in the production planning. The evaluation takes the elements presented by [8] with a generic function that takes a multi-component system, and based on the local forecast of its components, the management of the inaccuracies and uncertainties of these forecasts evaluates the reliability of a system. The evaluation method considers the structural relationships that exist between the multiple components of a redundant system, but also considers the different states of health of its components and system functions, as well as the uncertainty of its local forecasts. From this assessment, various indicators of operation, failure, loss of redundancy, out of order, etc. are derived, which together with the propagation of uncertainty assists decision making for maintenance management in cooperation with production planning. Verification and validation of the usefulness of a generic function (GF) for decision making was achieved. The proposed model allows predicting the propagation of component failures and their effects on the operation of the system entities. Its contribution to production systems will be greater when applied to a real case of production system.