Desarrollo de una metodología para la generación de escenarios de Cambio Climático futuro ligados a eventos de precipitación extrema en Costa Rica

Anthropogenic activities have generated an accelerated increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the last century. This, in turn, has caused a general imbalance of the global climate system, which has been called global climate change. Unequivocally, climate change is causing extreme precipitation events in various regions of the planet. Extreme precipitation events have been increasing in intensity and frequency in relation to historical records. Likewise, extreme precipitation is a determining factor in the occurrence of flood events.

Both natural and civil drainage systems are becoming ineffective in the face of the onslaught of climate change. On the other hand, floods have profound destructive effects on infrastructure, production, communications, the economy, and people. This is particularly critical in regions such as Central America, which is considered a hotspot due to its vulnerability to the effects of future climate change. Therefore, it is critical to deepen the understanding of the possible impacts that extreme precipitation events could have on the Costa Rican territory, located on the Central American isthmus.

Consequently, this project aims to develop a methodology for the generation of future climate change

Change scenarios linked to extreme precipitation events in Costa Rica. To do this, precipitation simulations derived from an ensemble of high spatio-temporal resolution Climate Change models, including General Circulation Models (GCMs), Regional Climate Models (RCMs), and Statistical Downscaling (SD), will be used. For the uncertainty analysis, the radiative forcing scenarios linked to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPS), for the future periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, will be taken into account in relation to the historical baselines defined by the World Meteorological Organization

The methodology to be developed will focus on generating Climate Change projection products of extreme precipitation at the local level for specific meteorological stations, which may later be replicated at similar meteorological stations in other regions of the country. The products to be generated are located within the Climate-Services category, which is a set of tools seeking to incorporate scientifically supported climate information and predictions that ultimately facilitate decision-making regarding adaptation and mitigation to Climate Change.

More specifically, Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves will be generated and compensated for Climate Change for the selected meteorological stations, which, in turn, will facilitate the development of impact studies at a punctual scale. This will make it possible to quantify the effects that Climate Change could have on both natural and civil drainage systems associated with the study area, thus increasing their resilience to climate variability and climate change. This foregoing would make it easier for engineering practices to incorporate a wide range of future climatic conditions (potentially very different from those recorded historically) into the designs or evaluations of infrastructure works such as bridges, roads, and drainage systems

Desarrollar una metodología para la generación de escenarios de Cambio Climático futuro ligados a eventos de precipitación extrema en regiones seleccionadas de Costa Rica mediante el uso de ensambles de modelos dinámicos de Cambio Climático de alta resolución espacio-temporal.

Escuela de Ingeniería en Construcción: Cambio Climátioo.
Escuela de Ingeniería en Computación: Ciencias de la Computación.